“Prices rose more under Joe Biden than under Donald Trump.”

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U data show the index at about 243.6 in January 2017, 261.6 in January 2021, and about 317.7 in January 2025 — roughly a 7.4% cumulative rise across Trump's first term versus roughly a 21% cumulative rise across Biden's term, nearly three times as much.
• Annual inflation peaked at about 9.1% in June 2022 under Biden, the highest 12-month CPI increase since 1981; the highest 12-month rate during Trump's first term was about 2.9% (July 2018).
• The Fed's preferred gauge, the PCE price index, tells the same story: roughly 6–7% cumulative growth over Trump's first term versus roughly 17–18% over Biden's term.
• Category-level BLS data show the same direction for staples: grocery (food-at-home) prices rose about 24% and gasoline and shelter prices rose sharply more over 2021–2024 than over 2017–2020.
• FactCheck.org's end-of-term scorecards for both presidents report the same contrast in cumulative CPI change, confirming the arithmetic independently of partisan framing.

• The claim conflates correlation with causation. Economists attribute most of the 2021–22 surge to pandemic supply-chain disruption, energy shocks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and pent-up demand funded by stimulus enacted under BOTH presidents (the CARES Act and December 2020 relief were signed by Trump).
• The comparison is flattered by the pandemic: COVID collapsed demand in 2020, producing outright monthly price declines that dragged Trump's four-year total down. Measured to January 2020 instead, Trump's pre-pandemic three-year inflation was a fairly normal ~2%/yr pace.
• Inflation was a global phenomenon; the euro area, UK, and Canada saw comparable or worse price surges in 2022, and U.S. inflation fell faster than in most peer economies thereafter.
• Prices rose under both presidents — 'prices rose more' is about the rate/magnitude, not about prices falling under Trump. By late 2024 the 12-month rate was back near 2.5–3%, close to Trump-era norms.
• The statement is ambiguous about which Trump term is meant. If read as including Trump's second term (from January 2025), that period is ongoing and cannot yet be compared over a full four years.
• Nominal price change alone omits wages: average hourly earnings also rose faster under Biden, so real wage change is a smaller gap than the headline price numbers suggest.

94/100 — the lab’s own confidence in the score above, not a second reading of the claim.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / BLSgov · 98 · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / BEAgov · 98 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsgov · 98 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsgov · 96 · USDA Economic Research Servicegov · 93 · International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlookgov · 90

• Using the broad CPI-U index, prices rose much more during Biden's 2021-2025 term than during Trump's 2017-2021 term. FRED's BLS-sourced CPI-U not-seasonally-adjusted series shows Jan. 2017 CPI 242.839, Jan. 2021 CPI 261.582, and Jan. 2025 CPI about 317.671: roughly +7.7% under Trump’s first term versus about +21.4% under Biden. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS
• FactCheck.org’s retrospective on Trump’s term reported consumer prices up about 7.6% from January 2017 to January 2021, consistent with the BLS/FRED calculation. Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2021/10/trumps-final-numbers/
• The largest year-over-year inflation spike in this comparison occurred under Biden, with CPI inflation reaching 9.1% for the 12 months ending June 2022, according to BLS. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07132022.pdf

• The claim is accurate as a descriptive CPI comparison, but it can be misleading if read as saying Biden personally caused all of the price increase. Inflation in 2021-2023 was driven partly by global pandemic disruptions, demand/supply imbalances, energy shocks, and Russia's war in Ukraine, not only U.S. presidential policy. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/28/global-inflation-remains-high-amid-war-persistent-demand-supply-mismatches
• The claim uses the broad word 'prices.' CPI is an average market-basket measure; individual prices varied, and not every good or service rose by the same amount. Source: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/overview.htm
• The comparison depends on the chosen endpoints and on interpreting 'Donald Trump' as his first term, 2017-2021. That caveat does not overturn the core result, because the CPI increase during Biden’s term was far larger than during Trump’s first term.

90/100 — the lab’s own confidence in the score above, not a second reading of the claim.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsgov · 96 · FactCheck.orgfactcheck · 90 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsgov · 98 · International Monetary Fundother · 90 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsgov · 98

• According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of everyday goods and services, rose by approximately 7.8% cumulatively during Donald Trump's four years in office (January 2017 to January 2021).
• Under Joe Biden, the cumulative increase in the Consumer Price Index from January 2021 to the spring of 2024 has exceeded 19%.
• Mathematically, the aggregate rate of inflation and the total rise in consumer prices have been significantly higher during Biden's presidency than during Trump's presidency.

• While the statistical claim is objectively true, economists point out that implying a president is solely responsible for price changes omits vital macroeconomic context.
• The inflation surge during the Biden administration was largely a global phenomenon driven by pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions, sudden shifts in consumer demand, and global energy and food shocks exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Conversely, inflation at the end of Trump's term was artificially suppressed by the severe economic contraction and collapse in consumer demand during the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic.

98/100 — the lab’s own confidence in the score above, not a second reading of the claim.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)gov · 100 · FactCheck.orgfactcheck · 95

• Using the broad measure of cumulative consumer prices during each presidency, prices rose substantially more under Joe Biden than under Donald Trump. PolitiFact estimated a 19.4% cumulative increase during Biden’s first three and a half years, while Reuters reported that inflation never exceeded 3% in any month of Trump’s presidency and was considerably higher under Biden.[https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/sep/08/donald-trump/fact-checking-donald-trump-on-the-scale-and-causes/][https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-trump-point-fingers-each-other-inflation-during-debate-2024-06-28/]
• Inflation peaked at approximately 9% under Biden, compared with a peak of 2.9% under Trump, according to Reuters’ review of CPI data.[https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-election-trump-rally-factcheck/]
• Food prices also increased more under Biden: PolitiFact reported increases of about 20.3% during Biden’s first three years versus 5.3% during Trump’s presidency.[https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/apr/05/inaccurate-data-used-to-show-cost-of-living-increa/]

• The statement is not fully precise without defining “prices,” the comparison dates, and whether it means cumulative price levels or the inflation rate. Inflation is a rate of change, whereas cumulative price increases measure the change in the overall price level.
• Biden’s presidency included extraordinary pandemic-related supply disruptions and the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; the higher inflation observed during Biden’s term does not by itself establish that Biden’s policies caused all or even most of the increase. Reuters reported these broader contributing circumstances and noted that inflation was already affected by the pandemic period.[https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-election-trump-rally-factcheck/]
• A direct four-year-to-four-year comparison is complicated because Biden’s term began amid unusually low inflation and Trump’s term ended during the pandemic, when demand and prices were temporarily depressed. Thus, the claim is accurate as a description of observed price increases, but incomplete if intended as a claim about presidential responsibility.

93/100 — the lab’s own confidence in the score above, not a second reading of the claim.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsgov · 99 · PolitiFactfactcheck · 94 · PolitiFactfactcheck · 94 · Reutersnews · 96 · Reutersnews · 96

• BLS CPI-U data show the index rose about 7.7–7.8% from January 2017 to January 2021 (Trump term) versus roughly 20–21% from January 2021 to January 2025 (Biden term).
• Peak 12-month CPI inflation was 9.1% in June 2022 under Biden, the highest in four decades; under Trump it stayed below 3% in virtually every month outside brief COVID volatility.
• Average annual inflation and the cumulative rise in the CPI, PCE price index, and common household categories (food, shelter, used cars) were all substantially larger during Biden’s presidency than Trump’s.

• Trump’s cumulative figure is pulled down by the sharp 2020 COVID price drop, which created a lower base for the subsequent rebound that occurred on Biden’s watch.
• A large share of the 2021–22 surge was global (supply-chain snarls, energy and food shocks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, post-lockdown demand), and peer economies saw similar or higher inflation.
• Year-over-year inflation had already begun rising in late 2020 before Biden took office, so some of the early increase was inherited.

86/100 — the lab’s own confidence in the score above, not a second reading of the claim.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)gov · 96 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsgov · 98 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsgov · 97 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsgov · 98